The liquidation of funds was the feature in the grain markets today. Now that the USDA reports are factored in, the focus will turn to US weather and planting progress. The USDA’s first weekly crop conditions report will be released next Monday afternoon. Next Friday is the next USDA monthly supply and demand report.
At today’s close, May corn was down 13 ¾ cents, while December corn closed up 4 cents. In the soybean market, May closed down 35 cents and November futures closed down 14 cents. CBOT wheat closed down 21 cents, KC wheat was down 17 cents and Minneapolis July closed down 11 cents.
weekly chart update
For the week, May corn closed down 19 cents at $7.35. This compares to $5.60 last year at this time. For soybeans, the May contract closed down $1.28 per bushel compared to $14.02 a year ago. This week, CBOT wheat closed down $1.18, KC wheat closed down 98 cents and Minneapolis wheat closed down 39 cents.
The main factor heading into trade on Monday will be the headline news of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks.
The liquidation of funds continues as large investors in the cash and futures markets collapse.
Currently July corn is down 8¢, December corn is up 6¢. In soybeans, July soybeans were down 13¢ and November was down 6¢. Wheat is mixed with CBOT lower and Minneapolis and KC trading higher.
For the week, local corn is down 17¢, local soybeans are down $1.10 per bushel and wheat futures are down 30¢ to over $1.00 per bushel.
Peace talks continue as the war continues. The news is mixed and the daily volatility continues.
The stock market continues to decline and ranching is under pressure.
Next week will see more of the focus on North American weather and planting progress. Wheat traders will be watching for the release of the USDA’s first growing conditions report. After yesterday’s USDA reports, grain markets will be very sensitive to weather.
It looks like grain markets will continue to consolidate. The big surprise was the USDA’s Prospective Planting report, which showed 2.5 million acres less corn than expected, and soybean acreage was 2.2 million acres above business estimates. Total corn and soybean acreage reached 180.5 million acres. The grain stocks report showed slightly less corn than expected, more soybeans than expected and wheat, about 20 million bushels less wheat stocks than expected.
Now that the reports are factored in, the key will again be the war in Ukraine, with a greater focus starting in April on US weather and planting conditions. Weekly USDA Crop Status Reports will begin next Monday.
Cereal prices were very volatile yesterday. Corn closed higher, soybeans sharply lower and the wheat market was mixed. In overnight markets, grain markets are mostly down after starting higher last night.
At this time, July corn is down 10¢, while December corn is up 5¢. July soybeans are down 20¢ and November soybeans are down 14¢, and wheat prices are mixed with Chicago prices lower and KC and Minneapolis slightly higher. The funds continue to liquidate long positions.
Crude oil is slightly lower in foreign markets today after falling sharply yesterday. The US dollar rose 0.29 points and US stock index futures fell again. The huge old crop premium versus the new crop price premium continues to decline.
Looking ahead to April and the second quarter of 2022
First, keep in mind that the March 31 acreage report is called the Planting Intentions report and the actual numbers may look different on the June 30 planting report.
With the current ratio of soybeans to corn prices at 2.09 to 1, this rally will buy acres of corn this spring if Mother Nature cooperates.
Yesterday was the end of the month and first quarter. Let’s see how prices trade next week.