Weekend Readings: Housing Market Slowdown and Inverted Yield Curve Point to Coming Recession

It’s human nature to fear missing out when prices spike, but all bubbles eventually burst.

Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics predicts a 25% decline in US home sales. What will that do with prices? Weigh with your thoughts.

A classic sign of a recession

On March 24, the five-year US Treasury note yield was 2.40% and the seven-year note yield was 2.43%. Both were higher than the 2.38% yield on 10-year Treasury bonds. Typically, the longer the maturity, the higher the yield on bonds with similar credit risk.

A Counter-Argument for Bank Stocks

While the Treasury yield curve for 5-, 7-, and 10-year notes has inverted, the spread between 3-month Treasury bill and 2-year Treasury note yields has widened considerably. This is good news for banks, as loans appreciate at higher interest rates while the cost of deposits remains low.

ClearBridge’s Sam Peters does the case of bank stocks as industry profitability increases and credit quality remains strong.

Are Tesla shares cheap?

Tesla CEO Elon Musk with a Tesla Model Y.

AFP via Getty Images

Shares of Tesla fell 18% through March 24 from their closing high on November 4. The factory of the electric car manufacturer in Berlin. open this week and is expected to add 500,000 units to the company’s annual production capacity.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, a longtime Tesla bull, believes Tesla stock has been oversold.

Related: We calculate how much more gas costs for each type of vehicle – see how yours stacks up

Help me retire!

Alessandra Malito writes the help me retire column. This week she has practical advice for a self-proclaimed spendthrift who is 60 years old.

The big move: My husband and I owe $87,000 on our mortgage and have $400,000 in savings. Should we sell our house now to prepare for retirement?

Read on if you have Medicare or plan to retire soon: Medicare Advantage Enrollment Period Is Coming to an End: Understanding Your Health Care Before It’s Too Late

The best and worst of exchange-traded funds

Illustration by MarketWatch/iStockphoto

this week ETF wrapper column, Christine Idzelis lists the best and worst actors in the industry. It also includes interviews with Scott Helfstein, Executive Director of Thematic Investments at ProShares, and Matthew Bartolini, Director of SPDR Americas Research at State Street Global Advisors.

If Social Security provides most of your income, do you need to file a tax return?

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Probably not, but it might be in your interest to file a return anywayas Jim Blankenship explains.

Related: Here are some retirement planning mistakes to avoid

How Different Companies Handle Inflation

Tonya Garcia delves into inflation: Procter & Gamble’s focus on quality is expected help the company benefit from higher prices. Warby Parker is taking a different approach to the price of prescription glasses.

Why Your Retirement Move May Fail

Photo illustration by MarketWatch/iStockphoto

Dawn Fleming and her husband managed to move to Mexico successfully, but some people have regretted similar moves. While it focuses on how people plan to retire outside of the US, some of the reasons these moves can fail are more closely tied to how people thinkinstead of where they go.

going nuclear

With the global market for fossil fuels disrupted by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, rising energy demand in a growing economy, and a long way to go for various green energy supplies, Michael Brush lists 10 ways to invest to revive nuclear power.

go to china

Some professional investors consider China “uninvestable” due to arrestrictions on the availability of audit reports to investors or because regulatory changes affected many technology-oriented companies over the past year.

But if you’re ready to invest in China, Jeff Reeves has a list of Five tech stocks to consider.

Stay healthy

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One of the best aspects of a sport like golf is that you can keep playing as you get older. But you still have to be careful. Rashelle Brown explains How Golfers Over 50 Can Avoid Injuries.

More on aging and health:

The lack of wisdom of the multitudes

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As an investor, do you adjust your portfolio based on world events or financial market developments? Scott Nations explains how “financial grazing” may hurt your long-term investment performance.

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